Statistical Model Picks Schauffele as 2026 Masters Winner Based on Historical Data
It chose Xander Schauffele as the winner. The model eliminated every other golfer using trends that have stayed consistent at Augusta National Golf Club across decades.
Xander Schauffele plays a shot from the fifth hole tee box during a practice round prior to the 2026 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 7, 2026 in Augusta, Georgia.
Photo by Hector Vivas/Getty ImagesA predictive analysis used 12 patterns from past tournaments to study the 91-player field for the 2026 Masters Tournament. It chose Xander Schauffele as the winner. The model eliminated every other golfer using trends that have stayed consistent at Augusta National Golf Club across decades.
Players got removed in stages. The criteria? Prior experience at the event, recent performance, and how they'd fared on the course before. All 46 of the last winners had competed there at least once. Twenty-six of the last 28 champions had finished in the top 30 at some point.
The filtering knocked out Scottie Scheffler. Yes, even though oddsmakers favored him. Since 2006, the betting favorite has claimed the green jacket just once in 2024. Defending champion Rory McIlroy didn't survive the cuts either. Back-to-back wins have only happened three times in tournament history.
Recent major championship results mattered. Of the last 16 winners, 14 had placed sixth or better in a major during the two years before their triumph. Driving distance played a role, too, with 16 of the last 17 winners ranking inside the top 50 the year before they won.
Ball-striking removed eight contenders, Viktor Hovland and Max Homa among them. Each of the last 14 champions gained at least 18 shots through strokes gained: tee-to-green across their four most recent starts before arriving at Augusta.
The final test eliminated Bryson DeChambeau based on his scoring average at the Georgia course. The last seven winners each averaged under par there. DeChambeau's all-time average? It sits at 72.54 across 32 rounds.
Xander Schauffele checked every box. All 12 criteria. That includes having at least three career PGA Tour wins, a trend that held for 13 of the last 14 winners.
